Football is much akin to life in that when you’re a player, most of what happens is within your control. Much of your route in life is self-governed and the course of a football game is largely dictated by the actions of the players within it. However, a small percentage is made up by ‘marginals’ that are less controllable. Errant refereeing decisions, the way the wind blows and the way the ball runs. Occasionally these marginals can win or lose you a game by felicity. The best and most consistent teams control the controllables so well as to render any unfavourable marginals irrelevant whilst ensuring that any favourable marginals are capitalised upon.
In life, man has invented deities and such like because we find it hard to accept that the universe is totally indifferent to human existence or suffering. Events happen and we assign meaning to them based on our subjective experience. We try to rationalise them as part of a plan belonging to a God or cosmic energy force. In football, we implore imagined concepts such as ‘luck’ or ‘fate’ or ‘karma’ to explain why a random wind deviation, or cruel deflection consciously decided to punish us so. We find it hard to deal with a lack of meaning.
Arsenal lost to Borussia Dortmund on what I would term a ‘controllable marginal’ on Tuesday night. The game plan of both teams was pretty sound for the most part, even if Arsenal struggled to impose themselves as an attacking force. I still don’t think the home crowd quite understands the reasons behind our defensive improvement in the last 6 months. Dortmund dominated possession in the early stages of the game, which caused a frisson of anxiety in the crowd.
“Close him!”, “Get stuck in!”, “Wake up Arsenal!” were among the comments I heard screamed at ear splitting levels. Yet Dortmund still struggled to create an opening because our shape was solid, even if we hadn’t got going yet as a team. That’s one the elements that has been so enthusing about Arsenal this year, not just what the likes of Özil, Ramsey and Giroud have done with the ball, but what the team have done without the ball.
Norwich were allowed to see more possession than one might have expected on Saturday. Arsenal struggled for cohesion in the immediate aftermath of Flamini’s enforced substitution and Norwich encouraged the home crowd into anxiety again. Yet the Canaries, for their possession and territorial adventure, mustered one shot in the first half. It’s not atypical, many of Arsenal’s opponents this year have been allowed to see the ball, but they’ve not been allowed to do much with it.
Dortmund’s first goal emanated from an avoidable error from Ramsey at a time when Dortmund never looked like playing through us, even though they were dominating possession. I fancy Arsenal were naive to be caught over committing in the last 15 minutes for a game we didn’t really have to win desperately. A draw kept us in control of the group. In a group where tight margins are likely, head to head records could be crucial and Dortmund have the edge on us in that respect now lest we win well in Germany.
The Invincibles side is afforded some very mild criticism for having drawn too many games in their unbeaten season. Whilst this criticism is of course hyperbolic and often loaded with agenda, there is an instructive point. That side did know when to close a game down and accept a point. I recall my 19 year old self becoming infuriated at Goodison Park in January 2004 when Everton had just grabbed a 74th minute equaliser and Wenger’s reaction was to bring Gilberto on for Kanu to sure the game up. I’m not suggesting Arsenal should have ‘sured it up’ on Tuesday, but the example I’ve given is illustrative of a wider point about in game intelligence. (Which I understand better now than I did when I was 19).
However, margins are very fine at this level. Dortmund disrupted Arsenal as an attacking force with a relentless pressing game. It was probably part of Arsene’s plan to concentrate on not giving anything away until the 70th minute or so, when Dortmund would surely tire. That was probably when he asked his team to make their mark and try to win the match. Dortmund double and triple marked Özil. However, that freed Cazorla up when he came on as a substitute and he was the width of a crossbar away from making that extra yard of space count.
Dortmund clearly did their homework on Arsenal’s offensive players and upcoming opponents will have been taking note and will look to replicate that work. Not every club has players as good as Borussia to action the plan of course, but we’ve some quality teams to face in the next few weeks. The fitness of certain players will hold the key I expect. Though Arteta did a stellar job in front of Arsenal’s defence on Tuesday, you wonder if we’d been so exposed on the flanks for Lewandowski’s goal had Flamini been fit.
It was notable how closely he played to Gibbs against Norwich to compensate for Cazorla’s wanderlust from the left. Discipline will also have a big part to play. I think an early booking for Flamini at the Hawthorns slightly disrupted the rhythm of our midfield in the draw with West Brom. It meant that Flamini and Arteta swapped functions in effect, with Arteta designated as the harrier- a job he performed nobly, making six tackles in that game after Flamini’s yellow card. However, the shift neutered Flamini’s impact on the game.
I also wonder if Rosicky might have been quicker to chase back in the build up to Lewandowski’s goal on Tuesday had he not already been booked. There again, maybe he’d have been quicker were he not now 33 years old. Injuries to this point have forced some short rotation in the team and it was notable that Wenger pointed to a lack of sharpness on Tuesday evening. This wonderfully detailed piece from @sportingintel highlights the importance of stability when assessing a team’s chances of winning the league.
In 2003-04 Arsenal had a ‘stability index’ of 83%, versus just 64% in 2005-06- Arsenal’s lowest points total under Arsene Wenger. A lack of stability in your rivals is just as pivotal. In the summer of 1997, Eric Cantona retired and in September 1997, Roy Keane snapped his cruciate ligament. Without these twin occurrences it is highly doubtful that Arsenal would have won the Double in 1997-98. Arsenal have made some hay so far this season with their rivals’ lack of stability, but as Michael Cox presciently points out here Chelsea are only two points behind having negotiated tougher fixtures.
How Arsenal deal with their immediate rivals in the league will go a long way to determining their finishing position. Their flourishing attacking players will be subjected to more of the scrutiny Dortmund inflicted upon them and our defensive solidity will be tested to its utmost. Arsenal will need to control the controllables and hope that the marginals either go their way or are rendered irrelevant if they don’t. LD.
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