Champions League action tonight as we look to pull off what would be a minor miracle in Monaco after losing the first leg 3-1 at home.
We all know the stats, how rarely a two-goal deficit is overturned in the knock-out stages, and the fact is we have to go there and score at least three times to qualify. Monaco haven’t conceded that many goals at home for over three years. That is the stark reality.
Of course the players have been saying all the right things. Per Mertesacker:
We are quite confident at the moment and we want to put things right. We are very confident that, even away from home, we can beat any team in the world.
And Olivier Giroud:
We trust in our chance to go through and if we create as many chances as we did against West Ham, we can create hope.
That comes on top of the stuff from Arsene Wenger who, naturally, spoke of his team giving everything to go through. What else can they say? They know they made a complete bollix of the first-leg so all they can do is go out there tonight and give it a go.
I won’t lie: there’s a part of me that looks at a 3-0 result as far from impossible. Unlikely, yes, but not outrageously difficult to achieve. So much can happen in football matches that if things go our way then it could happen. An early goal for us, a red card perhaps, and if they play as badly as we did when we were at home then you just never know. Stranger things have happened.
It’s a very, very small part of me though. The more realistic side of me suggests that this is a game we can win, maybe make them a bit nervous along the way, but ultimately we’ll fall short of what’s required. It wouldn’t be any surprise to me at all if this was the most staid, boring 1-0 or 1-1 draw you ever saw.
While so much of the focus is on what we’re going to have to do from an attacking point of view, the fact we also have to defend is being rather overlooked. We are going to have to go for it, which means pushing forward and, as the game goes on, leaving ourselves more and more exposed at the back. You don’t need a long memory to remember that Monaco are pretty efficient on the break and have the players to hurt us in those circumstances.
I think they’ll be quite content to sit back and soak up pressure knowing their defensive record is good, as is their ability to use the spaces we’ll leave for them as we go goal hunting. To be fair, two of the goals they scored came off the back of individual errors from our players (and the first still looks iffy to me), so if we can avoid those then it won’t be as easy for the home side, but even so we’ll have to be aware.
As for the team selection, I think it’ll be: Ospina, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Coquelin, Ramsey, Cazorla, Ozil, Alexis, Giroud.
I don’t see a place for Theo Walcott or Danny Welbeck from the start, but obviously as the game goes on and you need goals they’re very handy options to have from the bench. I have Ramsey in ahead of Welbeck because of the balance he brings to midfield alongside Coquelin, and the need for us to maintain stability until much later in the game. If we then have to throw caution to the wind, so be it, but at least for the first half we have to play it reasonably smart (i.e – not like the first leg).
Ultimately, I think this is a game we should be looking to win in order to keep the momentum going. I think it’s a step too far to expect to qualify but look, sometimes football can really surprise you. I’ve already made my peace with our elimination so if we do manage to pull it off it’ll be very enjoyable, but at the very least I hope we can get another win under our belts to take us into the weekend in good shape.
We will have full live blog coverage of the game for you. Check back later for a post with all the details or bookmark our default live blog page and updates will begin automatically.
If you haven’t already, James and I chat about tonight’s game and a whole lot more – including his fashion disaster at the weekend – in the Arsecast Extra which you can find right here. It’s good for your ears.
Right, that’s that. Happy Whacking Day to all of you, see you later for the game.
