Thursday, May 9, 2024

The Big Arseblog Season Preview: 2023-24

It’s time for the traditional Arseblog season preview post, and like last year we’ve got a couple of other Arseblog regulars to give us their ten cents.

All of these have been written independently of each other, so there’s no cross-contamination. So, this is what myself, Andrew Allen and Tim Stillman think of the squad – as it stands, fully aware the transfer window is open until August 31st – and its readiness for the new season.

Starting, as always, with:

GOALKEEPERS

ANDREW MANGAN

While the arrival of David Raya may have some long-term implications for this position, signing the 27 year old from Brentford gives Arsenal enviable depth and some reassurance as we head into a long season. Injuries and suspensions for goalkeepers are relatively rare compared to outfield players, but they can still happen.

As it stands, Aaron Ramsdale is the first choice, and we know from his comments during the week he’s not prepared to give it up without a real fight. The fact that Raya has come on loan, at first anyway, may be better for the England man, but the relationship between the new keeper and coach Iñaki Caña may play a part as the season progresses.

I did harbour some concerns about how we might fare if Matt Turner had to play for any prolonged period in a season, and those are allayed by having two keepers of such calibre. It’s going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

TIM STILLMAN

The pursuit of David Raya could be opportunistic but I think it’s far more likely that, after a summer of competition with his National Team, Matt Turner has decided he would like regular football elsewhere leaving Arsenal with a need to recruit and Raya, a player clearly admired by Arsenal for some time, looks to be available (unexpectedly so).

Given Ramsdale has just signed a new contract it feels like a surprise move and I think it is inevitable that one of these keepers is not going to be satisfied for very long. Emi Martinez was not happy to be Bernd Leno’s back up, Leno was not content to be Ramsdale’s back up and so forth. However, putting that to one side, for this season at least, I doubt there is a team in the Premier League that can boast this sort of depth in goal.

How Arteta would use two such similar (both in terms of ability and style) goalkeepers will be fascinating. Reports suggested Raya was very keen to move to North London which makes me think he hasn’t come to play back up. There again, I am also very curious as to what the conversation with Ramsdale looked like when he inked a new deal in May. I doubt it was “by the way, we are looking at replacing you.”

This is such an intriguing development in Arteta’s squad build but, for this season at least, Arsenal are incredibly strong in goal.

ANDREW ALLEN

14 clean sheets put Aaron Ramsdale third in last season’s ‘race’ for the Golden Glove and he also picked up back-to-back ‘Save of the Month’ awards in April and May after denying Liverpool’s Mo Salah and Bournemouth’s Dango Outtara in stunning fashion.

While he has been prone to the occasional lapse in concentration, those moments of brilliance, underpinned by long spells of consistency, and his commanding personality have seen him deservedly rewarded with a new long-term deal. All those who doubted him when he joined the club have been proved wrong.

Ramsdale’s next task is proving he can fend off the challenge of loan arrival David Raya. Brentford’s Spain international represents a big upgrade on Matt Turner, especially when it comes to building play from the back, and he also has a long-standing relationship with keeper coach Inaki Cana.

Having two top-class goalkeepers on the books certainly makes sense if you’re serious about competing on four fronts but it’ll be intriguing to see how the minutes get shared.

Loaning Raya, rather than signing him permanently for big money, perhaps eases some of the tension over that decision but you still sense Arteta faces a conundrum in Europe. Ramsdale will be champing at the bit to test himself against Europe’s best while Raya, in all likelihood, will be thirsty for any minutes he can get. Finding a balance that doesn’t take a toll on their confidence or affect the stability of the defence will be key.

Down the pecking order, it looks like Karl Hein will stick around to provide backup while Alex Runarsson and Arthur Okonkwo find pastures new.

DEFENDERS

ANDREW MANGAN

I think this might be the most complete set of defenders I can remember at Arsenal. The issue with right-back cover has been solved by the signing of Jurrien Timber, even if he has played on the left throughout pre-season. The right-sided trio of William Saliba, Ben White and Timber are complemented on the other side by Gabriel, Jakub Kiwior and Oleksandr Zinchenko. Then you have Takehiro Tomiyasu as a kind of defensive Swiss Army knife, he can play in any position across the back four.

When you take into account we still have Kieran Tierny and Rob Holding on the books at the time of writing, it’s as strong a defensive group as you could really hope for. I think the manager will be targetting defensive improvement for the season ahead, and with the group he has, as well as two very good goalkeepers, it’s a realistic aim.

TIM STILLMAN

Arsenal have effectively replaced Rob Holding with Jurrien Timber, with Jakub Kiwior more integrated. I imagine those signings have done for Tierney and Holding and overall, it feels more like an Arteta defence with a series of Swiss Army Knives to choose from. While I am comfortable with Arsenal’s defenders, I am less easy about Arsenal’s defending and that is a team effort.

Arsenal play big boy football now, there is no more “back three because we can’t trust Mustafi / Kolasinac / Sokratis to cover ground.” The defenders need to be able to defend large spaces. The acquisition of Declan Rice ought to give them a greater deal of protection but if there has been a complaint in pre-season, it is how easy teams have found it to expose Arsenal in two passes.

That was also an issue at the end of last season. One way or another, they have to tighten up. Arsenal scored 88 goals last season. You can win the league scoring 88 goals. They conceded 43. You cannot win the league with those numbers. But like I said, I think that is more a structural issue than one with the defenders individually. I really like the look of Jurrien Timber too, he looks like an Arteta defender in much the same way that Trossard looks like an Arteta attacker.

ANDREW ALLEN

I’m struggling to recall an Arsenal squad with a set of defenders as physically imposing and versatile as those currently on the books.

In William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes, we have a centre-back pairing that can genuinely claim to be the best in the Premier League and I truly believe that had the former stayed fit, we’d have won the league last season. Close off the pitch and on it, where they communicate in French, they bring aggression in the tackle and calmness with the ball at their feet. They also have room for improvement. Neither is immune from the rashness of youth and both blotted their copy books with individual errors last season.

Thankfully, we now have lots of options to keep them on their toes. The arrival of Jurrien Timber from Ajax coupled with Takehiro Tomiyasu’s recovery from knee surgery, means there is elite cover across the backline. Ben White has proved equally adept at right-back as in the middle and I have a suspicion Jakub Kiwior could enjoy a breakout season after a slow(ish) start to life at the Emirates since his January move from Spezia.

Will we lean on Oleksandr Zinchenko as much as we did last season? He remains the master of the inverted full-back role but given his injury record, it seems foolish to think we can count on the Ukrainian week in, week out. Arteta knows that – hence Timber’s arrival – but I also reckon we’ll see the build-up play develop new patterns to accommodate Declan Rice’s qualities.

That could, in theory, open up a window for Kieran Tierney to feature a bit more but I still wouldn’t be surprised if he and Rob Holding depart before the end of August. If anyone needs a Portuguese full-back, feel free to help yourself to Tavares and Cedric.

MIDFIELDERS

ANDREW MANGAN

The £100m addition of Declan Rice is the main story about Arsenal’s midfield going into a new season, but it might be some time before we see the absolute best of him. In the meantime, retention of experience has been a factor, with Thomas Partey set to continue in the midfield anchor role, with Jorginho and Mo Elneny also options. Although Kai Havertz started the Community Shield up front, he spent most of pre-season in midfield, and it does seem as if that is where Arteta views him in the long-term.

When you then add captain Martin Odegaard, with his 15 goals last season, as well as Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira, the depth appears to be there for the season ahead. Albert Sambi Lokonga will probably depart, but if he was surplus to requirements last season when the squad wasn’t as deep, there’s not much chance for him now.

The speed at which Rice and Havertz bed in will be important, but signing two 24 year old internationals means that process, even if a bit complicated, shouldn’t be like starting from zero.

TIM STILLMAN

Alongside goalkeeper, midfield is the most intriguing area this season. In Havertz and Rice, Arsenal have bought two significant pillars of the midfield at considerable expense. Arsenal have Rice, Partey, Jorginho and Elneny for one position, I doubt there is a team in Europe with that kind of depth in defensive midfield. Rice is not a ready made Arteta player per se but he is a world class performer and a quick learner.

He might not be able to break lines with his passing like Partey (yet) but he can cover a lot more ground for far longer periods of time. Havertz feels like a real make or break signing. Xhaka was such a cornerstone of the Gunners engine room that there is bound to be some adjustment without him but I would imagine Havertz could better Xhaka’s nine goals and seven assists from that position this season.

Occasionally Arsenal lack height and presence in the penalty area and Havertz changes that. But it’s a tweak and it may take a little time to come to fruition. Arteta has made the decision to reintegrate Smith Rowe and he spent most of pre-season playing as an interior at left or right eight. While Fabio Vieira played exclusively in the right side of the field during pre-season which looks like a firm decision has been made to no longer field him as a ‘left eight.’ Arsenal have greater optionality too as they can field Partey and Rice together.

Arsenal look very strong on paper in this area but I think it might take a few games on grass to click into gear.

ANDREW ALLEN

Judging by his team selections in the latter stages of pre-season, it looks as though Thomas Partey will start the campaign as the midfield anchor. The Ghanaian was superb for two-thirds of last season only for his form to fall off a cliff in the closing stages as his fitness waned. It’s clear that overusing him is a problem but in the opening months, the connection he has with Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes should bring calm and continuity while new boy Declan Rice beds in.

I suspect our £100 million signing will get his first Premier League minutes playing the left-eight role vacated by Granit Xhaka but will take over from Partey later in games if we’re struggling to unlock defences and want to throw on more attacking options like Kai Havertz and Emile Smith Rowe.

If we’re looking to shut down a game, being able to send on Jorginho to double pivot with either Partey or Rice should help us control the tempo with Arteta’s fabled “300,000 passes”. The Italy international underlined his value in the heat of battle away at Newcastle last May and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets more opportunities like that.

Further up the pitch, we have an absolute superstar in Martin Odegaard. On the Arsecast this time last year, I predicted he’d be our player of the season. After scoring 15 goals and making seven assists, the Norway international dethroned Bukayo Saka to take that honour. And rightly so. Whether geeing up the crowd, pressing opponents or driving forward with the ball at his feet, he has a wonderful ability to wrestle control of a game – he is our conductor. I’m looking forward to seeing how he builds a relationship with Rice and Havertz and what he can do in the Champions League, a competition he’s only featured in three times.

Clearly, it’s a massive year for Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira. There is lots of football ahead and they need to prove they can come off the bench and impact games in a meaningful way if they are to stand any chance of starting games. Both look fit and raring to go judging by their performances this summer.

FORWARDS

ANDREW MANGAN

We are blessed to have two of the most exciting wide forwards in Europe, in the shape of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. The former produced 15 goals and 11 assists last season, the latter 15 goals and 6 assists – and they are still a long way from being at their peak. It’s excting to think where they could go again this time around.

Leandro Trossard has been an excellent addition since his arrival from Brighton in January, and when you add players like Emile Smith Rowe, Reiss Nelson, and Fabio Vieira to provide cover, it feels pretty solid. Especially when you consider Kai Havertz can also play on the right hand side.

The German is an option up front as we’ve seen, and when Gabriel Jesus is fit, he, Trossard and Nketiah are the options, with Martinelli at a push. I do think there is a question mark over Nketiah’s ability to contribute from the bench, he scores almost all of his goals when he starts, so his suitability for a back-up role is a discussion point. With Flo Balogun set to depart, we won’t get a chance to see if he could have been better in that regard.

I have a sneaky feeling we might try and add another forward to the squad before the end of the window, but right now so much is focused on departures and we’ll have to sell/loan a few before we can do that.

TIM STILLMAN

Since this time last year Arsenal have added Leandro Trossard to this area, while Reiss Nelson’s role has increased and he has a new contract in his pocket. Saka, Jesus and Martinelli still feels very much like the first choice front three with Trossard liberally sprinkled hither and thither like a favourite from the spice rack and I think that’s a title challenging quality front line.

The question is what lies beneath. I am not sure Falorin Balogun has much of a future at Arsenal and Emile Smith Rowe seems to no longer be considered a part of the forward line, we are banking somewhat on Reiss Nelson continuing his ascent. I think Eddie Nketiah is a good striker but I am to be convinced that he is an Arteta striker.

All in all, I think this is an area where Arsenal could use one more player, preferably someone who can play across the frontline- maybe a player who can operate on both flanks leaving Trossard to cover more interior spaces. Arteta had to essentially flog Saka and Martinelli last season and with Champions League football on the horizon, I think I would like another wide player to truly complete the attacking carousel.

Saka is going to get injured one day and I feel we could use a player that can confidently take on that right wing role.

ANDREW ALLEN

In advance of last season, Mikel Arteta said Arsenal needed to hit 90-goals to be able to compete for the title. It seemed like a gargantuan leap from the 61 we hit in 2021/22 but thanks to an incredible collective effort, we jumped to a club-record Premier League tally of 88. Of those, just over half (48) were scored by players now listed as attackers by the club. Not bad, but there’s still room for improvement.

Obviously, it’s a concern that Gabriel Jesus misses the start of the campaign with a knee problem directly related to the surgery he had in December. When he first came into the team, the Brazilian’s mobility was a revelation compared to some of his lumbering predecessors. While he’s clearly a bit of a streaky player, we can cope with that given the other options at our disposal.

Eddie Nketiah, rather than Folarin Balogun, appears to be the most likely candidate to replace the Brazilian in the short-term although Kai Havertz and Leo Trossard, two very different players, are also capable of playing as a number 9 or false equivalent. I might easily have covered the two of them in the midfield section, but that’s the beauty of Arteta’s squad this year, there’s versatility and fluidity everywhere you look. I expect Trossard will spend most of his time competing with Martinelli for the left wing spot in our regular 4-1-2-3 formation but if the game requires it, he’s another who can drop deeper to play the ‘Xhaka’ role.

Arteta seemed impressed with Havertz’s efforts leading the line against Manchester City in the Community Shield. His finishing could be tidier – something Chelsea fans will attest to – but he was a willing runner and his hold up play, aided by his gangly frame, could be useful in engineering space for our wide players to burst through the lines. He’s also great in the air which is something our attack missed last season.

It’s hard not to be excited about what Saka and Martinelli do next. Both produced a marked improvement in their key stats last season and have developed a swagger and ruthlessness that can win games single–handedly. Managing them over a long season will be key; Saka, in particular, looked shattered by April after a long campaign that involved a lot of international football. Having had one foot out of the door, Reiss Nelson has been asked to provide cover and Arteta will be hoping that faith is rewarded with a new level of consistency. First, he needs to stay fit.

Can we better 88 goals in the league? Possibly. But if we tighten up at the back, we may not need to.

OVERALL

ANDREW MANGAN

Last season, I declared myself happy with the squad we had, albeit still open to another addition or two. Ultimately, we were found wanting towards the end of the campaign due to a lack of depth/quality in a couple of positions. This time around, it feels like we have made sure that won’t be a factor.

The title challenge was a bit of a surprise, and last August I said, “Top four has to be the aim, but not just that. We have to acknowledge the likes of Man City and Liverpool are ahead of us, but closing the gap should be part of our objective this season too. If we do that, we’ll finish more or less where we want.”

We did that. Now the challenge is meet expectations and do it again. Some pundits are already tipping us for the title, although I strongly believe there’s an element of saying that so they can have a pop if we don’t do it (GNev). Nevertheless, it does show how far we have come, so it’s up to the manager and players to deliver. The other challenge, of course, is the greater importance of European football this season, you have to take the Champions League group stages more seriously than the Europa League, but then this is why we now have a big squad.

My final hope is that Arteta expands his horizons a little, he’s worked best with small groups in the last two seasons, but the demands of this new one mean he’s got to trust his players. Given they are all basically his purchases, it will be interesting to see how that manifests itself between now and next May.

TIM STILLMAN

I think Arsenal have built greater depth and versatility in the squad this season. I don’t think they will start quite as assertively as they did last season (let’s face it, we were on a 100 point pace for about half the season, it would be incredibly difficult to match that this time around) but after two seasons of faltering in April, I am hopeful that greater rotation and unpredictability will allow for a stronger finish.

There are questions around how long it will take the midfield to settle down and what the goalkeeping position looks like. I also still feel as though rotation and support for Saka remains a pinch point and I would love one more wide player to make it feel more rounded. My doubts around Nketiah aren’t severe enough to consider it an urgent situation and I do not rule out that he might develop further this season.

I think Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United are all going to be stronger than they were last season so, in my mind, top four is the first – if not principal – target. But I think Arsenal are once again equipped to make a title challenge. I will be interested to see how the tone of the coverage of Arsenal changes next season now expectations have risen, I expect every performance that is less than footballing perfection will be pulled apart externally and that is something that players and the fans will have to adapt to.

Hold your nerve people, we are in the deep end now but you don’t win anything in the shallow end.

ANDREW ALLEN

Arsenal has been reborn under Mikel Arteta. We’re a club that others envy. A club on an upwards trajectory. A club that has players, staff and fans all engaged. That’s incredibly powerful coming into a new season and a real cause for optimism.

A couple of years ago, I was wondering if we’d ever get back into the Champions League, now I look at our squad and manager and reckon we could have a very decent crack at trying to win it. For the record, I’m not expecting us to! I see our presence in that competition as a bit of a free hit because it’ll take time for our young squad and manager to grow more Euro-savvy.

For the first time in ages, we come into a new season genuinely expecting to challenge for the Premier League title. Ending the 20-year drought has to be our focus. Arteta knows that. He’s also aware we’ll need to be near-perfect to do it. That obviously brings pressure, especially as we’re not the plucky upstarts anymore. We’ll have a mark on our back and stronger ‘Big Six’ rivals to contend with so if there are bumps in the road, which there are bound to be, we have to be able to quickly compartmentalise any disappointments.

The squad is good enough to win the league. If we manage it properly (squad rotation will be key) and get lucky on the injury front then maybe, just maybe, we’ll stay the course. Who knows, maybe there will be a cup success along the way too. I’m buzzing to get back to the Emirates to experience it all.