Just lately, Arsenal’s coterie of forwards have dominated club discourse – presuming of course that you are prepared to mute the ever present background hum of debate over the manager. Olivier Giroud scored on his return to action from injury. Danny Welbeck scored an impressive winning goal against West Bromwich Albion. Alexis Sanchez’s notched his 14th goal of the season with a late winner against Southampton. Hell, even Yaya Sanogo cast aside his Arsenal L-plates last week.
Against that backdrop and with the improvement of Oxlade-Chamberlain starting to stir in Gooner grey matter, it almost feels like Theo Walcott has become a forgotten figure. Contextually, Walcott is existing in a kind of limbo for the Arsenal collective consciousness. Having made his return with a 10 minute cameo against Burnley in November, his comeback has been cryogenically frozen by a groin strain picked up on international duty. Much of the discussion and anticipation over his availability has run its course and the delay caused by his groin problem has been something of a splash of cold water in the groin area for all of us.
There is also an administrative sphere to the Siberia Walcott finds himself in. In just over 18 months, his Arsenal contract is due to expire. Wenger has tepidly hinted that talks have begun over renewing his terms. But you get the feeling that Walcott is in a similar position to that which Bacary Sagna found himself in back in 2012. Arsenal generally broker discussions with a player under 30 two years before the end of his deal. With Walcott, as with Sagna, that watershed coincided with a bad injury.
Arsenal (understandably) wanted Sagna to prove he could recover from two broken legs in quick succession before offering a new contract. Arsenal may want Walcott to convince Wenger that his cruciate ligament injury has not compromised his effectiveness before they commit to the kind of terms Walcott and his advisors are likely to request. The club were satisfied with Sagna’s recovery and offered him new terms at the 18 month mark. We’ve already reached that threshold with Theo. He is very unlikely to move in January, so realistically, what happens before the summer will determine his future.
However, it isn’t solely a fitness issue that invites a fit of chin stroking. In this day and age, a cruciate ligament problem doesn’t have the grave ramifications it once did, even for a speed merchant like Walcott. The fact is, this is not the team he was smirkingly stretchered away from in January before riled banks of Sp*rs fans in Arsenal’s Clock End. The last time Theo inked a new contract with Arsenal, with the clock ticking dangerously towards zero, he was in a much more powerful negotiating position than he finds himself now.
At that time, Walcott was as indispensable as he has ever been in his Gunners career. In truth, his supremacy was as unbowed last January when his cruciate ligament detonated. In 2012-13 Arsenal were reeling from the loss of Robin van Persie and keen not to lose yet another star in a rapidly dwindling constellation. Arsenal were bedding Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud in and experimenting with Gervinho as a false 9. The aces were still very much in Walcott’s sleeve; yet there is still suggestion that Arsene Wenger almost let him leave on deadline day in August 2012.
Walcott’s squad status is no longer that strong. With Danny Welbeck and Alexis Sanchez added to the forward line, Arsenal are not just replenished numerically, but arguably less reliant on Walcott’s pace and penetration; these attributes are now found elsewhere in the forward line. This was not the case earlier this year. Back in September, Wenger wryly remarked that negotiating with Theo was “never easy” and that’s not simply due to economics. It is well publicised that Walcott levied a tactical demand to play as a centre forward last time around. The signing of a relatively short deal suggested some caution on one or both sides of the agreement.
Wenger persisted with Theo in the centre for a short spell until the ink on the new deal dried. Thereafter, a compromise was sought which saw Walcott begin from the flank, but with increased license to roam inside and join Olivier Giroud when Arsenal were in possession. The issue for Walcott is that Danny Welbeck can do much the same job, as he proved with his assist for Alexis against Swansea and his fulminating header against the Baggies at the weekend.
The added bonus with Welbeck, is that he provides greater physicality and defensive security. He recorded more tackles than any other Arsenal player at the Hawthorns. With the return of Olivier Giroud, the likes of Welbeck, Giroud, Alexis and Ramsey were able to reprise the fast, one touch interplay around the edge of the area that yielded wonderfully crafted goals for Wilshere (v Norwich) and Rosicky (v Sunderland) last season. It’s hard to envisage Walcott contributing to that sort of interplay.
In Alexis, Arsenal have something of a speed demon with an X-factor who is, truth be told, often a liability in Arsenal’s build up play. It’s difficult to see Arsene Wenger persisting with Alexis and Walcott in the same line up when neither is especially gifted when it comes to building the play and setting rhythm. A front 3 of Alexis, Giroud and Welbeck could be said to lack width and Theo can certainly provide that, but so too can Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who is beginning to show signs of consistency.
All of this is of course not to say that Walcott is now disposable to Arsenal. He is not. It’s a long season and myriad options are required. One gets the feeling that Arsenal are, slowly, getting back to the days of being able to call for the cavalry from the bench when a goal is needed. Giroud and Podolski made a discernible difference from the bench against a tiring Southampton on Wednesday. Walcott is a very good attacking option and he guarantees you some end product. He’d still start a significant number of games, even in lieu of injuries (!)
The issue is whether the two parties will be able to formulate an agreement. Walcott is likely to request parity with the club’s biggest earners. Are Arsenal going to be amenable if they feel that does not reflect his value? He is also in a very unique situation in terms of image rights. His marketability outstrips his ability. I don’t intend to sound disparaging to Walcott’s abilities, he is clearly an effective player, but he is probably one of the most marketable footballers in Europe and I don’t think he can rightly be considered one of the most talented. Not yet anyway. His agents will be aware of this and will factor this into their demands.
One could of course point to the fact that Arsenal have lacked efficiency in front of goal this season and Theo is certainly clinical in that respect. However, so is Lukas Podolski and that doesn’t seem to have bumped him any further up the ladder. In any case, I’m not convinced Arsenal’s current wastefulness in front of goal is terminal, I think it is more a case of a need for increased understanding, which will hopefully lead to better decision making.
Of course we have yet to bear the fruit of the Özil / Walcott partnership which, on paper, has the potential to ignite memories of Bergkamp and Overmars / Anelka. The two have passed like ships in the night since the German was signed last summer and Walcott might view this as his ticket back to the supremacy he enjoyed in 2012-13. Yet overall, this looks to me to be a potentially complicated negotiation. Walcott’s likely demands to the power of his current importance might be an uneasy equation for the club.
Assuming my inferences are not entirely inaccurate and Walcott isn’t considered as important tactically as he once was, it may not even be just a question of terms. Perhaps Theo will want some selection guarantees. It’s unlikely that a bigger club than Arsenal will satisfy his centre forward lust, but if they’re willing to make him feel more important, he may well be tempted to search for greener grass elsewhere. Time will tell, but I am to be convinced that Walcott signing on with Arsenal is any sort of formality. LD.
Follow me on Twitter @LittleDutchVA
