Friday, March 29, 2024

Confirmation bias and lingering pus

The lingering pus of the Aston Villa defeat has been, at least temporarily, flicked away by a trio of convincing victories. It leaves us in good shape for the visit of Tottenham on Sunday. I think it might be a good time to play Spurs. I’ve watched both of their games so far this season and they remind me somewhat of Arsenal this time last year. They too have lost the focal point around which their attack has been built. Though they have moved early to purchase good quality replacements, their attack is still acclimatising to one another.

In defence, little has changed. They have bought one defender this summer to replace the outgoing Stephen Caulker. Spurs have won through both matches with a pair of penalties but have otherwise struggled to impose themselves in much the same way Arsenal did in their 0-0 draws with Sunderland and Stoke last August. That said, Arsenal went to Anfield for their third game last season and ran out comfortable winners due to goals from two of their new boys. Well, I’ve made myself feel better.

If Arsenal’s results have set a redemptive theme, then there have been a few individual performers calling the tune of redemption song. Not least man of the moment Aaron Ramsey, who has found his confidence again with obvious results. There has been some debate over whether his spell on the wing was a reason for past indifferent form or whether it has informed his current purple patch. There’s no real way of knowing for sure. I’m prepared to believe it might have helped him. Though I’d stop short at claiming it was entirely responsible for his upturn.

One of Ramsey’s biggest flaws has been his inclination to hold onto the ball for too long and his inability to manoeuvre out of tight spaces. I think there’s every chance that playing him from the wing was about teaching him to be more economical by giving him less space to operate. Now he releases the ball much earlier and wriggles away from opponents in tight spaces with greater ease. Aaron effectively found his form at the end of last season playing out of position in an unfamiliar deep midfield role that he had little prior experience of.

Like I say, I’m just speculating and none of us can ever really know for sure, nor is it really important for us to. What is important now is for Ramsey to continue to progress and improve. He’s already showing greater composure in front of goal (this interview from April 2012 is interesting in hindsight). Now I want to see him begin to really dominate games against big opposition and maintain this form for the whole campaign.

Wojciech Szczesny was criticised for his opening day display against Aston Villa. I felt the denunciation of his performance, whilst not completely unwarranted, was exaggerated. He certainly didn’t cover himself in glory for Villa’s first penalty, but considering Agbonlahor had skipped through 30 yards of fresh air by the time he got into the penalty area, you can understand why Szczesny felt he had to deal with it, even if he was impetuous. Earlier in the game he had raced from his goal to deal with a long ball which drew sighs of exasperation.

As a goalkeeper, if you make a decision to come off of your line, you have to do it early. At the time he set off, Koscielny and Mertesacker were not winning the foot race with Benteke so I think he was right to come out. His error was to have been caught out by an awkward bounce once he got there, rendering his clearance less than emphatic. The amusing thing was, a day later, I saw Hugo Lloris make an almost identical error for Spurs at Selhurst Park.

He raced from goal and lost the ball outside his box. Fortunately for him, Paulinho was covering and dispossessed the Palace player eyeing up the empty Spurs net. Yet my Twitter timeline worked itself into frenzy over Lloris’ control of the situation and forged it into a stick to beat Szczesny with. Don’t get me wrong, Lloris is a fine goalkeeper and his work coming from his goal line is chief amongst his attributes. But on that occasion, his error was airbrushed due to reputation.

It’s not true of every criticism, but sometimes I think narratives develop and confirmation bias comes into play. I think there’s a narrative developing that Arsenal need a goalkeeper in the transfer window – and I wouldn’t necessarily complain if we signed one – but I do think it’s led to some people wanting to seize on perceived weakness. Whatever you think of Szczesny’s performance against Villa or the appraisal of it, you can’t deny that he’s responded positively thus far.

This is one of my favourite things about Szczesny and it’s why I rate his potential so highly. When he’s criticised or slighted, he responds in a way that the likes of Denilson, Senderos, Manninger and other promising young players couldn’t. That shows character and that’s something all top level players have. In a sense, Szczesny epitomises Wenger’s conundrum in the Emirates era. Wenger might point to Ramsey as evidence for keeping faith with teething youngsters. The long term rewards are potentially greater.

We guffaw at Wenger’s line about ‘killing’ players, but if we nurture Szczesny correctly, I think we potentially get a world class goalkeeper for ten years or more. Yet there’s a delicate balance which Arsenal have fallen foul of. If you don’t surround developing players with experience and quality, you become a finishing school. I’ve said it in these pages over the summer already, but when a player reaches 100 club games, that’s usually when you mark whether or not he will realise his potential at the top level.

It’s telling in that respect that Ramsey hit the 100 club game mark in March this year. Szczesny currently sits on 80 club matches, Wilshere and Chamberlain on 78, Gibbs on 70. By comparison, Denilson never played for Arsenal again after his 109th career appearance and Senderos had gotten to 110 when he was jettisoned. Johan Djourou hasn’t played for Arsenal since his 99th career outing. Fitness permitting, by May 2014 we will have a good picture of where the current crop stands.

However, what’s true is that Arsenal need to support them by augmenting an anorexic squad. We have a good core of about 16 or 17. Small as it is, there aren’t many players in the first team squad that would draw a groan if selected in the starting XI. In the recent past, supporters have had their voodoo dolls, but I don’t see that anymore. There are no Almunias or Adebayors. I think the players have people’s faith. Whether anyone has any vestige of faith left in those running the club is a question we’ll all be revisiting come September 3rd. LD.

Follow me on Twitter @LittleDutchVA

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